Palinisms In Polling

Read this closely and then tell me how reliable Rasmussen's polls are:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters who favor Palin say they are at least somewhat likely to vote third-party if she isn't nominated. That includes 22% who say it is Very Likely.

What this is saying is that less than half of people who still use landlines as their primary phone that are considering not voting for Obama in 2012 because they think Palin is "cool" aren't sure whether or not they would actually cast a vote that matters - including a minority of people whom, with a sufficient amount of prodding, would get off the couch and just push any button that caught their fancy at the time that wasn't Palin or Obama.

That's how Rasmussen results read - completely and utterly pointless.

Look for the modern American Right to get all in a tizzy over this, complete with Fox"News" doing their best to ensure that she does get the nomination.

Of Polling And News Sources

I'm not to terribly worried about this latest Rasmussen poll that shows the Tea Baggers have a negligible lead against Obama in terms of who is seen more favourable.

On major issues, 48% of voters say that the average Tea Party member is closer to their views than President Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 44% hold the opposite view and believe the president’s views are closer to their own.

Not surprisingly, Republicans overwhelmingly feel closer to the Tea Party and most Democrats say that their views are more like Obama’s. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 50% say they’re closer to the Tea Party while 38% side with the President.

This, as well as the further breakdown of the data, shows that people are responding more to media noise ( *cough Fox"News" *cough* ) than the realities on the ground.

This leads me to wonder how this data set can be further expanded upon. Where do these people get their information from? What is their age group? What do they consider a "major issue facing the country"? That's a pretty vague question.

Also, were these 1000 people polled ( over the phone mind you ) all from one general, geographic area, or is this an apparent sample from across the country. If you polled a random 1000 people from the South, I can see how you would get the Tea Baggers coming out ahead. Conversely, if you polled that same number from the Northeast, the totals would likely shift a complete 180 degrees.

Partisan Polling Practices

There's definitely a close relationship with Scott Rasmussen and the entirety of the GOP. The love is showcased on a daily basis ( quite literally ) on Fox"News" and HotAir. But why do they consistently cite this pollster and not others?

Nate Silver over at 538.com has discussed, at length, how Rasmussen polls and how this could potentially show bias. Not simply due to the way the poll is conducted ( it's an IVR - robocall setup that has a lower completion rate than traditional 1-on-1 interview polling ) but in how the persons are chosen for the sample.

One reason why Rasmussen is so favored by conservatives is largely due to his contribution to Bush's 2000 election. Secondly, the style of questions used by Rasmussen tend to reflect conservative positions on various causes. But are his results as solid as many claim?

From the special Senate election coming up in 8 days to the popularity of healthcare reform, Scott Rasmussen taps into how conservative media ( like Fox"News" ) frames a particular debate and then translates that into polling data for Fox to use to further their standpoint.

But one thing that Rasmussen, Fox, and conservatives to rely exclusively on them for information don't realize is that polls are literal snapshots in time that only show how people feel at that precise moment in time. Polls do not and never have shown how a person is going to act.